Production forecasts

Status of production

Over the past 50 years, more than 56 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the Norwegian continental shelf have been produced and sold. This indicates that there is also a potential for a high activity level on the shelf for the coming 50 years.

Norway produced 239 million marketable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) in 2025. This is a slight decrease compared to 2024, when 240.7 million Sm³ were produced. By comparison, total production in the record year of 2004 was 264.2 million Sm³ o.e.

Oil production was higher in 2025 than in 2024, mainly due to the startup of new fields. Gas production, on the other hand, was lower in 2025 than in 2024, which was a record year for gas production. Total sales of gas amounted to 121.5 billion Sm³ (120.1 billion Sm³ 40 megajoules of gas). In 2025, natural gas accounted for about 50 per cent of the total production measured in oil equivalents.

Production forecasts

Historical production and production forecasts for the next five years split by product type are shown in the figure below.

The production profile of a typical oil field shows a rapid increase to a maximum production rate, then a stable period of production (the plateau phase) followed by a gradual decline in production. Without further investments, oil production will decline rapidly, and even with considerable investment to improve recovery, it can be difficult to maintain production from a field.

As a result of the high development activity on the Norwegian continental shelf, it is expected that the oil and gas production will be stable in the coming years. Without new fields or large-scale investments on existing fields, production from the shelf would decline. The new fields coming on stream will in the short term compensate for lower production from aging fields.

The production level in the long term is uncertain. It depends, among other things, on the measures implemented on the fields, discoveries that are decided to be developed, and when they come into production. New discoveries in the future, their size, and how and when they are developed will also affect the production level in the long term.

The figure below shows the total historical production and forecasts until 2035, distributed by the maturity of the resources.