Production forecasts

The NPD’s forecasts show that oil and gas production is increasing from 2020 to 2023, following a slight decline in 2018/2019.
The NPD’s forecasts show that oil and gas production is increasing from 2020 to 2023, following a slight decline in 2018/2019.
Status of production Production forecasts

Status of production

In the 50 years since Norwegian petroleum activities began, about 48 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the continental shelf have been produced and sold. Thus, there are large remaining resources, and it is expected that the level of activity on the Norwegian shelf will continue to be high for the next 50 years as well.

In 2019, Norway produced 214.1 million Sm³ of marketable oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.). By way of comparison, total production was 226.7 million Sm³ o.e. in 2018 and 264.2 million Sm³ o.e. in the record year of 2004.

Oil production was five per cent lower in 2019 than in the previous year. The natural decline in production from mature fields has not been compensated for by new fields coming on stream throughout the year. At the end of the year, production increased due to the start-up of the Johan Sverdrup field.

Gas production was high in 2019. Total sales of gas amounted to 115.2 billion Sm³ (113.2 billion Sm³ 40 megajoules of gas), about five per cent lower than in 2018. In 2019, natural gas accounted for just above 50 per cent of the total production by oil equivalents.

Production forecasts

Historical production figures and production forecasts split by product type category are shown in the figure below.

Historical and expected production in Norway, 1970-2024

Updated: 09.01.2020

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

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Historical and expected production in Norway, 1970-2024

The production profile of a typical oil field shows a rapid increase to a maximum production rate, then a stable period of high production (the plateau phase), followed by a gradual decline in production. Without further investments, oil production will decline rapidly, and even with considerable investment to improve recovery, it can be difficult to maintain production from a field.

Without new fields or large-scale investments on existing fields, oil production from the Norwegian shelf would continue to decline. Given the high level of development activity in recent years, production is expected to remain relatively stable for the next few years and will increase from the early 2020s. Production from new fields that come on stream will compensate for the decline in production from aging fields. The future production level is uncertain, however. It depends on initiatives that are implemented on the fields, discoveries that are decided to be developed, and when they come on stream. New discoveries, how large they are, and how and when they are developed will also affect the production level.

The figure below shows total historical production and production forecasts until 2030, distributed by maturity of the resources.

Production history and forecast distributed per resource category, 2015-2030

Updated: 09.01.2020

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (Gas is given in 40 MJ)

Print illustration Download data Production history and forecast distributed per resource category, 2015-2030 Download PDF Download as image (PNG)

Production history and forecast distributed per resource category, 2015-2030
Updated: 09.01.2020