Production forecasts

Status of production

Over a period of more than 50 years, over 57 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the Norwegian continental shelf have been produced and sold. This may provide the basis for a high level of activity on the shelf over the next 50 years as well, depending on new discoveries, profitability, and decisions regarding development and continued operation.

Norway produced 239.2 million marketable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) in 2025. This is a slight decrease compared to previous year, when 240.7 million Sm³ were produced. By comparison, production in the peak year of 2004 totaled 264.2 million Sm³ o.e. Oil production was higher in 2025 than in 2024, mainly due to the startup of new fields. Gas production, on the other hand, was lower in 2025 than in 2024, which was a record year for gas production. Total sales of gas amounted to 121.8 billion Sm³ (120.5 billion Sm³ 40 megajoules of gas). In 2025, natural gas accounted for about 50 per cent of the total production measured in oil equivalents.

Production forecasts

Historical production and production forecasts for the next five years split by product type are shown in the figure below.

A typical oil field experiences a rapid increase in production until it reaches a maximum level. Production then remains relatively stable for a period of time (plateau production), before gradually declining. Without further investments, oil production can drop quickly. Even with substantial efforts, it can be challenging to maintain production from a field.

High development activity on the Norwegian continental shelf is expected to keep oil and gas production relatively stable in the coming years. Without new fields or large-scale investments in existing fields, production from the shelf would decline. The new fields coming on stream will in the short term compensate for lower production from mature fields.

Production level in the longer term is uncertain. It depends, among other things, on which measures are implemented at the fields, which discoveries are approved for development, and when they come on stream. The size, timing, and development concepts of future discoveries will also affect long term production level.

The figure below shows the total historical production and forecasts until 2035, distributed by the maturity of the resources.